BIG 5 European leagues: what to look out for in 2022/23’s final stretch

The 2022/23 campaign is about to enter its final furlong. No more international breaks and no more margin for error, whether your side is fighting for the title or scrapping to avoid the dreaded drop. Here are some highlights to look forward to between now and the end of May.

English Premier League

Guardiola and Arteta slugging it out for the biggest prize

Arsenal’s points tally after 28 games is 69, whereas the Invincibles of 2003/04 had 70 points at this exact stage of their glorious unbeaten title win. The current crop have a difficult run-in, with trips to Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle, West Ham and Nottingham Forest on the horizon. Their home games are against bottom-half trio Leeds, Southampton and Wolves, plus Chelsea and Brighton.

Pep Guardiola’s side are only 5 points off the pace they set last season, but have encountered a new rival with plenty about them. With Mikel Arteta serving as Guardiola’s assistant at Manchester City from 2016 to 2019, there’s an added layer of spice.

Haaland and Saka are the difference-makers

Arsenal lead Man City by a not-insignificant 8 points, although the Citizens have played a game less, with their next test at home to Liverpool in Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off. The 2 preeminent sides of the last half-decade squaring off is a wonderful way to start the final stretch of the league season. It’s also a BIG test for Guardiola and his men. Liverpool battered Man Utd 7-0 less than a month ago, showing they’re still capable of the “heavy metal” football that Jürgen Klopp became famous for.

Arsenal’s in-form winger Bukayo Saka became the first Premier League player to hit double figures for both goals and assists this term when he teed up Gabriel Martinelli’s opener against Crystal Palace in a 4-1 win just before the break. Saka transferred his fine form onto the international stage, scoring and assisting for England in a 2-0 win against Ukraine. Opta note that he now has 16 goals and 7 assists in his last 34 appearances for club and country. If Arsenal are to win their first title since 2004, Saka will end up shouldering a lot of the responsibility for it.

If City edge the Gunners out then Erling Haaland, scorer of 42 goals already in his first season in English football, will be the key. He’s only the sixth ever Premier League player to score 40+ in a single season across all competitions, following Andrew Cole, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Cristiano Ronaldo, Mo Salah and Harry Kane. Haaland is keeping some fine company.

City’s packed schedule comes with the territory

Man City are still in the Champions League, where they face Bayern Munich in the quarter-finals, and the FA Cup semi-finals. By contrast, Arsenal’s sole focus is the league. Guardiola has a strong squad, so rotation shouldn’t be a problem, but top-level competitions will take a physical and emotional toll on any group of players.

City vs Arsenal on 26th April could be the decisive day in the title race, one way or another. Put it in the diary.

Conte leaves Spurs in 4th

Tottenham and Antonio Conte have parted ways “by mutual consent” which isn’t surprising given how sour the relationship had turned. The final straw seemed to be Conte’s explosive interview following their 3-3 draw with Southampton where they surrendered a 2-goal lead.

Despite all of that, Tottenham averaged 1.88 points per game in the Premier League under Antonio Conte (P56 W32 D9 L15), the second highest figure for any Spurs manager (38+ games in charge). That’s according to Opta’s data. Mauricio Pochettino’s average of 1.89 is the highest in this category. You’d be forgiven for thinking that Conte didn’t exactly do an awful job in North London, although it was for a shorter timeframe than Pochettino’s.

Right now, Spurs and Newcastle look like the leading candidates for 4th place, but Liverpool, who are starting to look like themselves again, at Anfield at least, could have something to say about that. FA Cup semi-finalists Brighton, who though 7 points behind Spurs have 3 games in hand, aren’t out of contention yet. Their fixtures with Brentford, Tottenham and Chelsea in the first half of April are likely to make or break their challenge.

Leeds are 1 of 9 teams in danger of the drop

Aside from Conte, another Italian who didn’t have a great weekend is Leeds United’s sensationally talented attacker Wilfried Gnonto. The 19-year-old sprained his ankle against Malta. He’s already a major doubt for their next game away to Arsenal, but the club will urgently need him to be fit for matches against sides closer to them in the table.

Leeds had won just 1 league game in 13 before an entertaining 4-2 win away to Wolves last time out. Still, 2 wins from 14 isn’t exactly great going as they prepare for a trip to the league leaders. Javi Gracia’s side are 2 points above 18th-placed West Ham, although the Hammers have a game in hand. David Moyes’ Londoners next face rock-bottom Southampton. Remarkably, there are only 4 points separating the Saints from Crystal Palace in 12th place.

Relegation battle becoming a box-office attraction

Crystal Palace vs Leicester is a standout fixture on Saturday because it pits the 2 most out-of-form sides in the Premier League against one another. Both have lost 4 of their last 5 and, if the Foxes lose in London, they could end the weekend inside the relegation zone.

Everton vs Bournemouth and Leicester vs West Ham are 2 potentially pivotal relegation deciders that both take place on the final day of the season, but there’s so much football to be played between now and then. The fight to escape relegation to the Championship will be one of the most riveting subplots across Europe. That is, for neutrals at least.

West Ham were relegated in the 2002/03 season with 42 points, a record tally for a side which still didn’t stay up. It feels as though it’ll take a lot less than 42 to ensure safety this time around.

Serie A

Party time in Naples

Napoli’s inevitable march to a first Scudetto since 1990 continues apace. Giovanni Di Lorenzo, club captain and the oldest player in their starting XI in a 4-0 win against Torino last time out, was born in 1993, illustrating just how long it’s been since Diego Maradona truly put Napoli and Naples on the footballing map.

Luciano Spalletti’s side have won their last 3 matches across all competitions, scoring 9 times in that sample and conceding none. They are 19 points ahead of Lazio with 11 matches to play. What makes this all the more extraordinary is that Napoli lost Dries Mertens, Lorenzo Insigne and Kalidou Koulibaly prior to the start of the campaign.

Khvicha “Kvaradona” Kvaratskhelia and Victor Osimhen have captured the hearts of many football fans around the world this season, and the duo have become hot property in the process. Napoli are still in the Champions League too, in the same half of the draw as AC Milan, Inter and Benfica, creating the possibility of an unprecedented league and European double.

Juve can still have a crack at a top-4 finish

Despite a 15-point deduction, Juventus are still very much in the picture for a Champions League qualification place, just 7 points behind AC Milan in 4th.

March was a good month for the Old Lady. They won 4 matches on the bounce across all competitions and have a Europa League quarter-final date with Sporting and a 2-legged Coppa Italia semi-final with Inter to look forward to in April. Sandwiched between those commitments is a Serie A meeting with Napoli on 23rd April.

With the Scudetto all but sealed, the race for a top 4 place is where the majority of the most intense action will be for the remainder of the Italian season. Lazio, Inter and AC Milan are currently in place, but Juve, Roma and Atalanta will all fancy their chances. Juve’s schedule is perhaps the most daunting, with matches against Lazio, Napoli, Atalanta and Milan all to come.

Bundesliga

3-horse title race provokes shock managerial change

There’s a genuine Bundesliga title race this season and, for once, Bayern have ground to make up. It’s only a single point, but this is the first time since they last missed out on top spot in 2011/12 that they haven’t been leading the pack with 9 games to go. Leaders Borussia Dortmund are out of Europe but still in contention for a domestic double.

Dortmund’s next match is against none other than Bayern on Saturday. What a game that promises to be, especially with ex-Dortmund manager Thomas Tuchel installed as the new Bayern boss. Life comes at your fast in top-level football. Just ask Julian Nagelsmann, who was abruptly sacked from his dream job at Bayern while on a skiing holiday, despite delivering last season’s Bundesliga title and 8 wins out of 8 in the Champions League this season.

So who’s the third horse in the race? The unfancied Union Berlin. The capital club are just 5 points behind Dortmund even after a few recent setbacks and can’t be ruled out of the title equation. Incredibly, they were only promoted to the top tier of German football for the first time in 2019.

LaLiga

Barça over the hill and far away?

Barcelona will take some catching now, with a 12-point lead over Real Madrid with just 12 matches to play after coming from behind to beat their rivals in injury time just before the international break. Real Madrid still have 2 more trophies to play for though, attempting to overturn a 1-0 deficit away to Barcelona in the Copa del Rey semi-finals before facing Chelsea in the Champions League quarter-finals.

Relegation for Valencia would be catastrophic

At the bottom, many pundits would have said that Valencia were too good to go down, but they’re in a genuine relegation fight down in 18th place. Encouragingly for Los Che, they’ve won 2 of their last 4 in the league, having lost 5 matches in a row prior to that. Both of those wins came by a 1-0 scoreline. Head coach Ruben Baraja was famous for his fighting qualities in a Spain and Valencia jersey, and he’ll need to summon those if his club are to stay afloat.

Like in England, LaLiga’s relegation issue is a congested affair, with just 3 points separating Almería in 19th and Getafe in 13th. Sevilla, who finished the last 3 seasons in the top 4, are among the strugglers. Only Elche, who have just 13 points and are 14 points shy of 17th, are adrift.

Ligue 1

Only 1 major trophy on offer for PSG

Kylian Mbappé, PSG and France’s main man, is now Les Bleus captain at age 24. He’ll have to wait at least another year to add the Champions League to his domestic and international honours though after his side’s round-of-16 elimination to Bayern Munich.

PSG are clear favourites to retain the Ligue 1 crown, 7 points ahead of Marseille with 10 matches still to play, but the most intriguing subplot could be the race for the top scorer award.

Balogun exceeding all expectations

Lille’s Canadian striker Jonathan David is level with Mbappé on 19 goals, but ex-Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette and current Arsenal striker Folarin Balogun, on loan with Reims, both have 17 league strikes to their name. Monaco’s Wissam Ben Yedder also has 17.

Balogun has been the subject of intense speculation both in terms of his club future (many Arsenal fans want him back at Emirates Stadium next season) and which country he eventually pledges his allegiances to as a full international footballer. The New York-born striker is eligible for England, USA and Nigeria.

Messi still going strong

Lionel Messi has 13 goals and 13 assists in Ligue 1 this season. The only players with double figures for both goals and assists in Europe’s BIG 5 leagues this season are Messi, his PSG teammate Neymar, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bukayo Saka and Randal Kolo Muani.